Nats likely to be furious over having to pay for Crosby Textor

The boys at The Standard will be well-chuffed with Yoda's column in the Herald on Saturday - after a sharp campaign of explaining away the evils of Crosby/Textor, John Armstrong became the first to indulge them when he wrote:

However, selling "Brand Key" as a breath of fresh air in an otherwise fetid political atmosphere was hardly credible if National was going to team up with Peters once the election was over.

July was definitely the cruellest month to Jonkey, with 15 posts tagged to the brandkey moniker (13 in the first fortnight). A good place to start for research's sake is here.

With a solid strike-rate like that, I'm certain C/T will be keeping an eye our liberal lads, and who knows where that could lead?

Is that DPF I hear, reminiscing over yesteryear?

Paranoia's not the problem - it's the reptiles that we should be worried about

I dutifully read Fran O'Sullivan this morning and thought well done. Well done indeed. It's given me the opportunity to fly the latest in my long line of conspiracy theories that I often keep under wraps, and both Bomber and Jafapete have only themselves to blame (points were deducted from Jafapete for hat-tipping to the Standard - loverly guys but this vid was a poor piece of propoganda).

Theory number one comes from people (like myself) who like the long game. I've had theories about how the Hon Bill English is one of these people - I won't bore you with the details, but the general gist is this. If you go back to the end of last year, Fran's wish-list for the top stories of 2008 holds this wee gem:

4. John Key and Bill English cut succession deal Key offers English a secret deal that he will step down as Prime Minister after two terms in favour of his Treasurer (English). The former currency trader recognises that English - who virtually single-handed ran the Electoral Finance Bill story that catapulted National back up the polls - deserves to succeed him. This assumes Key has read the lessons from the reigns of Tony Blair and John Howard about what happens to unity when talented finance supremos are left to fester for too long.

Lew will pooh-pooh me as he thinks Key is "It's a dog eat dog world and I've got bigger teeth than you," but I like to think of Fran in her Winebox days - if something smells fishy, that's probably because there's a snapper lying around.

Tenuous correlation number two came from reading the Armstrong-O'Sullivan combo, and isn't linked to the above at all. Yoda wrote:

National will know soon enough from its own private polling just how big a hit it has taken. Many people will wonder what all the fuss is about. Others will simply blame Labour for the dirty tricks. As a minimum, however, National can probably wave goodbye to securing a majority in its own right. (My emphasis)

Obviously, it was the last line that caught my attention.

I've got a bet with a few friends that ACT's going to ring in 6% of the vote. Seems obvious to me - you've got 5% of the population who are libertarian, neo-lib, and neo-con nutters, just like you've got 5% of the population who not only like Winston, but actually believe him too.

The issue is that 45% is not too much of a stretch for the Nats, and if you tack on ACT in a formal coalition you've got a prime opportunity to go back on any promises you made on the campaign trail ("we don't want to, it's Rodney's and Roger's fault"). Expediency is a wonderful thing.

This is only wild speculation on my part - I'm sure there are many minds that can rip this flight of fancy to pieces - but if our next Government (and even this pinko commie's coming around to a centre-right coalition) is blue and yellow, I'm looking forward to front row seats. I was too young for Lockwood's about-face last time and I wouldn't mind witnessing a repeat.