Paranoia's not the problem - it's the reptiles that we should be worried about

I dutifully read Fran O'Sullivan this morning and thought well done. Well done indeed. It's given me the opportunity to fly the latest in my long line of conspiracy theories that I often keep under wraps, and both Bomber and Jafapete have only themselves to blame (points were deducted from Jafapete for hat-tipping to the Standard - loverly guys but this vid was a poor piece of propoganda).

Theory number one comes from people (like myself) who like the long game. I've had theories about how the Hon Bill English is one of these people - I won't bore you with the details, but the general gist is this. If you go back to the end of last year, Fran's wish-list for the top stories of 2008 holds this wee gem:

4. John Key and Bill English cut succession deal Key offers English a secret deal that he will step down as Prime Minister after two terms in favour of his Treasurer (English). The former currency trader recognises that English - who virtually single-handed ran the Electoral Finance Bill story that catapulted National back up the polls - deserves to succeed him. This assumes Key has read the lessons from the reigns of Tony Blair and John Howard about what happens to unity when talented finance supremos are left to fester for too long.

Lew will pooh-pooh me as he thinks Key is "It's a dog eat dog world and I've got bigger teeth than you," but I like to think of Fran in her Winebox days - if something smells fishy, that's probably because there's a snapper lying around.

Tenuous correlation number two came from reading the Armstrong-O'Sullivan combo, and isn't linked to the above at all. Yoda wrote:

National will know soon enough from its own private polling just how big a hit it has taken. Many people will wonder what all the fuss is about. Others will simply blame Labour for the dirty tricks. As a minimum, however, National can probably wave goodbye to securing a majority in its own right. (My emphasis)

Obviously, it was the last line that caught my attention.

I've got a bet with a few friends that ACT's going to ring in 6% of the vote. Seems obvious to me - you've got 5% of the population who are libertarian, neo-lib, and neo-con nutters, just like you've got 5% of the population who not only like Winston, but actually believe him too.

The issue is that 45% is not too much of a stretch for the Nats, and if you tack on ACT in a formal coalition you've got a prime opportunity to go back on any promises you made on the campaign trail ("we don't want to, it's Rodney's and Roger's fault"). Expediency is a wonderful thing.

This is only wild speculation on my part - I'm sure there are many minds that can rip this flight of fancy to pieces - but if our next Government (and even this pinko commie's coming around to a centre-right coalition) is blue and yellow, I'm looking forward to front row seats. I was too young for Lockwood's about-face last time and I wouldn't mind witnessing a repeat.

The Day in Review Sept 25

- Pumpkin was reunited with nan today, and this was universally the biggest story among the broadcasters. Warm fuzzies all round (until you take into account that the Family Court will decide on whether or not nan can look after Pumpkin). The ongoing investigation got a lot of coverage too. I suppose when a story leads the networks in the States, we can follow their lead.
- Story number two (for the talkies) was the investigation into the death of a ten-month-old in Manurewa.
- Jim Anderton's lowering of the fishing quota got a lot of coverage (especially on the wireless), although 3 waited until no-one was tuned in before going wtih that story. Understandable, as Jim's hardly in their demographic. Smarmy Eric Young (over on Prime) pointed out that this was going to lead to job-losses. Smart man.
- 3 (and Prime) took the news that New Zealanders now outstripped Britons as the number one immigrants to Oz. John Key was appalled, because something has to be done to stop this braindrain caused by over-taxation in a heavily regulated environment propped up by a strong union movement.
- The new election boundaries were well-covered on the Wireless, but no-one shared the glee of Barry Soper on Prime (and Newstalk) when pointing out that it took the shifting boundaries to get rid of renegade Nat MP Brian Connell (or O'Connell if you're former 3 Political Editor Stephen Parker). Actually, I tell a lie; Bill English had a gleeful look when commenting on that story. Unsure if he had the same glee when Kris Faafoi rang him up for comment on the allegations by GayNZ.com that his son had been posting anti-gay messages on his Bebo site. (Good ol' muckraking at its best.)
- There was more of the same on the All Black jersey debacle, so I won't elaborate.
- Oh, and the PM opened a new prison, which according to prison guards who spoke to the wunderkind Jessie Peach is the most comfortable gaol in the country. It's going to fill up pretty quick too. And it's going to focus on rehabilitation.
- Close Up opened with a never-ending piece on sunblocks that don't do what they claim (and followed that with the new revolutionary cure to smoking; then that dress in the Christchurch Casino). Campbell opened up with his defence of the beauty of the female body, chatting to the icon of feminism in New Zealand, Christine Rankin (not a self-serving spotlight-hungry shrew as some would have us believe), on the right of Heather Simpson (not H2) to wear an evening gown in Christchurch Casino without being asked to leave. Christine mused on her own experience at the hands of the phallocentric bureacracy, wondering out loud if State Services Commissioner Dr. Mark Prebble had moved into the gaming business, along with his mysogyny. John followed this up with a shameless comparison to Nicky Watson, who readily admitted that she had never been turned away for wearing low-cut dresses. (Sorry, one of the afore-mentioned people gets my goat.)
- I was going to award TV One for an insipid half-hour today (I finally watched the entirety of Neil Waka's news at 4.30pm), but I gotta hand it to 3. A tweens' story AND Christine Rankin pontificating. Beautiful.
Good night.